The Thule incident, according to the “Indian” nomenclature adopted by the Pentagon, is a Broken Arrow: it involves an unauthorized launch, explosion, fire, or release of radioactivity from a nuclear weapon. However, an accident that causes damage to a nuclear weapon without any risk of explosion or injury to people is a Bent Spear. And the loss or theft of a nuclear weapon is an Empty Quiver. During the Cold War, there were several cases of Broken Arrows, documented and subsequently declassified by the US side, and at least one or two orders of magnitude more than Bent Spears (for several years, the US Army did not count minor incidents, for example). There have never been any Empty Quivers. From a different perspective, the Sandia laboratories certified 1,200 “significant incidents” involving nuclear weapons between 1950 and 1968. The Soviet Union’s figures are unknown, as are those of other nuclear powers.
