Syria. The Alawite Assad family regime falls. The capital Damascus is reached and taken by rebel forces. President Assad leaves the capital for Moscow. People celebrate in the streets all night. Statues and symbols of the regime are torn down. The fall of Bashar al-Assad was almost unthinkable just a week earlier, when the rebels began their surprising campaign against the regime from their base in Idlib. This is a turning point for Syria. Assad came to power in 2000 after the death of his father Hafez, who ruled the country for 29 years, and much like his son, with an iron fist. Assad junior inherited a tightly controlled and repressive political structure, in which opposition was not tolerated. At first, there were hopes that he might be different, more open, less brutal. But they were short-lived. Assad will forever be remembered as the man who violently suppressed peaceful protests against his regime in 2011, which led to a civil war. More than half a million people were killed, another six million became refugees. With the help of Russia and Iran, he crushed the rebels and survived. Russia used its formidable air power while Iran sent military advisers to Syria and Hezbollah, the militia he supports in neighboring Lebanon, deployed its highly trained fighters. This time, it didn’t happen. His allies, preoccupied with their own affairs, essentially abandoned him. Without their help, his troops were unable — and, in some places, apparently unwilling — to stop the rebels, led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). First, they took Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city, with little resistance. Then Hama and, days later, the nerve center of Homs. With insurgents also advancing from the east and south, the offensive isolated Damascus. Within hours, fighters entered the capital, Assad’s seat of power.

Syria. The territory controlled by the troops of the Alawite regime of Assad, rapidly collapses as the government army withdraws from Hama, Deir Ezzor on the Euphrates and several other locations, fleeing into Iraq through the crossing kept open by the Iraqi authorities. The jihadist forces of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group besiege Homs while other rebel forces take control of large portions of the south-western part of the country (Daraa and al-Sawidaa area in the mountains inhabited by the Druze), where the pro-democracy revolution that gave rise to the Syrian Civil War in 2011 had broken out. At the same time, in Eastern Syria, the SDF forces of the Syrian Kurds (supported by the Americans during the war against ISIS) cross the Euphrates and spread towards the West. And to the south, rebel forces who have received training from the American military at the Al Walid base on the Iraqi-Syrian border are pushing north and north-west, aiming for the capital Damascus.

Syria. Pro-Kurdish jihadist rebels take control of Aleppo. Thousands of civilians flee the city, from where the Syrian army has also withdrawn. The jihadist forces of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group and allied factions against the regime of Bashar al-Assad are advancing in the central Syrian province of Hama after having conquered key territories in the north-western provinces of Aleppo and Idlib in Syria from which they had been driven out in 2016. The surprise attack is prompted by the contingent situation: Hezbollah is engaged in Lebanon in an anti-Israeli role and has been severely weakened by the Israelis, several nerve centers and weapons supply points in Syria have been hit by the Syrians in recent months, and the Iranians and Russians have reduced supplies of weapons and men due to their respective internal situations (the Israeli attacks and the war in Ukraine).

Red Sea: Yemen’s Houthi forces say they have targeted the US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea and two US Navy destroyers in the Red Sea with cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and drones. The ships were attacked by at least eight unmanned one-way attack aircraft systems, five anti-ship ballistic missiles and three anti-ship cruise missiles, which were engaged and shot down.

Iran. Israel says it has struck military targets inside Iran in a wave of retaliatory strikes after Iran’s wave of ballistic missiles in Israel, targeting Iranian missile production sites in what appears to be a highly calculated response that avoids critical energy infrastructure, such as nuclear facilities. The strikes were long-anticipated and come as Israel mounts a major operation in northern Gaza and against the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon. Alleged targets of Israeli strikes in Iran also include the Qadiri barracks in Hasan Khan Castle, the missile production and preparation center, the Falaq barracks in Bideghan, the Sepah Air Force logistics center, the Imam Ali barracks in Bideghan. It was three waves of strikes in three and a half hours with hundreds of aircraft – including F-35s – engaged in the strikes from 2,000 kilometers away, all of which returned to their respective bases in Israel.

Hezbollah confirms that Hashem Safieddine, one of its top officials who was tipped to become the group’s next leader following the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli airstrike. Israel had said it had killed him in an attack earlier this month in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Gaza Strip. Hamas leader killed: Yahya Sinwar, The Israel Defense Forces says a unit from its 828th Bislamach Brigade was patrolling Tal al-Sultan, an area of Rafah, when 3 fighters were identified and engaged by Israeli troops and all were eliminated. At that point there did not appear to be anything particularly out of the ordinary in the firefight and the soldiers only returned to the scene on Thursday morning. It was then, during the inspection of the dead, that it was discovered that one of the bodies bore a striking resemblance to the Hamas leader. The body however remained in place due to suspected booby traps and instead part of a finger was removed and sent to Israel for testing. His body was finally extracted and brought to Israel later that same day, when the area was secured. The chief pathologist who performed the autopsy on Yahya Sinwar’s body told CNN that the Hamas leader was killed by a gunshot to the head. Dr. Chen Kugel, chief pathologist at Israel’s National Center for Forensic Medicine in Tel Aviv, said that while Sinwar had other serious injuries, including from a tank shell and a missile, he was confident that a bullet to the head killed the Hamas leader. A video on the X social network shows a drone flying through the open window of a largely destroyed building, approaching a man, his head covered, sitting in a chair on the first floor of a house covered in debris. The man, who appears to be injured, then throws what appears to be a stick at the drone and the video cuts out.

Southern Beirut, Lebanon. A heavy Israeli airstrike hits some of Hezbollah’s leaders and their coordinators, the Quds Force: senior Hezbollah official Hashem Safieddine (considered the successor to Nasrallah who was just killed by the Israelis) and the commander of the Iranian Quds Force Esmail Qaani, who had traveled to Lebanon after the killing of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah. Both Safieddine and Qaani have been missing since this new Israeli attack. Two weeks later, Hamas will acknowledge the death of Saffiedine.

Iran launches 180 ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles against Israeli territory. They are virtually all intercepted by the 3 concentric Israeli anti-missile shields (Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow) and by British and American military forces in the region. The damage is limited and the only casualty is caused by the remains of a missile shot down on a Palestinian victim in Jericho, in the West Bank occupied by Israel. The Israeli army will then admit the following day that some military air bases were also hit, causing only damage to secondary structures, but not with hypersonic missiles, and without causing casualties or causing alterations in the operational plan of the air missions.

South Lebanon. Israeli army ground troops enter Lebanon at two points, penetrating a few kilometers into Hezbollah-controlled territory.

Beirut, Lebanon. The Israeli military says it has killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Iranian sources say Nasrallah is alive and in a safe place. The next day Hezbollah also admits Nasrallah’s death. He was killed in a “targeted attack” along with 20 other senior members of the Lebanon-based group, including Ali Karaki, the commander of Hezbollah’s southern front. The IDF says the attack was carried out on the militant group’s headquarters in Dahieh, a Hezbollah stronghold in southern Beirut. They were in a bunker 30m below a residential area. Israeli fighter jets fired about 100 penetrating bombs to reach the bunker. At least two buildings partially or completely collapsed due to the explosions. Hezbollah, considered a terrorist organization by the United Kingdom, the United States and others, is more than a militia. It is also a political party, with representation in the Lebanese parliament and part of the government. It has a significant support base and is part of Lebanese society. And Hezbollah has no shortage of support from its Iranian ally. In Israel, however, the killing of Hassan Nasrallah will be seen as a major victory. He has been the beating heart of Hezbollah for more than 30 years. With the help of his close allies in Iran, he transformed Hezbollah into a fighting force that forced Israel to end a 20-year occupation of southern Lebanon in 2000. In 2006, he led Hezbollah as it fought Israel to a standstill. Nasrallah has been Israel’s greatest enemy: in recent years, only Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of Hamas’s attack on Israel in October last year, has come close. Against the will of its American allies, Israel has taken up the fight against Hezbollah after nearly a year of grueling border warfare. In recent weeks, Israel has activated a war plan it has been working on since the end of the last war with Hezbollah in 2006. The raid on September 27 was conducted by F-15s from Squadron 69, the Hammers, which had already destroyed a Syrian reactor in 2007. The bombing leveled several buildings, probably using bunker-busting bombs (such as the American BLU-109, weighing 1 ton and carrying 242 kg of explosives), which dug gigantic craters and caused at least 11 deaths and 108 injuries. Designed to destroy protected structures (even concrete ones), they penetrate the target up to 30m underground (or 4 to 6m in concrete) and explode “inside” thanks

Beirut, Lebanon. Israel carries out a targeted raid with two F-35 jets against a shelter where a meeting of the Hezbollah (the “party of God”) high command is taking place. The victims are 45, including 32 civilians and at least 13 Hezbollah high command, the elite and military leadership of the group, including Ibrahim Aqil who, in addition to being an Israeli target because of the attacks on Israel, has a $7 million bounty on his head from the American government to be held responsible for the April 1983 massacre at the American embassy in Beirut in which 63 people were killed and also for the killing of 241 marines, also in Lebanon on October 23, 1983. Ibrahim Aqil had just been released from the hospital for the wounds suffered after the attack with pagers a few days earlier. Other elite Hezbollah casualties include: Hassan Hussein, commander of the Aziz regional division special forces; Samer Halawi, commander of the coastal region; Abbas Muslimani, commander of the Qana region; Abdullah Hijazi, commander of the Ramim Ridge region; Muhammad Reda, commander of the Khiam region; Hassan Madi, commander of the Dov Mountain region; Hassan Abd al-Satar, chief of operations; Hussein Hadraj, chief of staff; Mohammad al-Attar, commander of the training department; and Mahmoud Hamad, a senior operations officer.

Russia. A large-scale Ukrainian drone strike on Russia has triggered an earthquake-sized explosion at a major military arsenal in the Tver region, forcing the evacuation of a nearby town, Russian war bloggers and some media reported. A huge fireball explodes high in the night sky, and multiple detonations are seen and heard across a lake 380 km west of Moscow. NASA satellites detect intense heat sources coming from an area of about 14 square kilometers. “Everything that can burn is already burning there (and exploding),” Russian blogs reported. The size of the main explosion is consistent with the detonation of 200-240 tons of high explosives, according to George William Herbert of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, California. The arsenal stored missiles for the S-300, S-400 and Grad systems, as well as North Korean-made Iskander and KN24 missiles, worth several thousand tons of explosive material.

Lebanon. “Israel has detonated thousands of personal radios (Walkie-Talkies) used by Hezbollah members in Lebanon in a second wave of its intelligence operation that began the day before with the explosion of Hezbollah pagers,” Axios journalist Barak Ravid reported, citing two informed sources. “The personal radios, which were pre-bombed by Israeli intelligence and then delivered to Hezbollah, were part of the militia’s emergency communications system that was supposed to be used during a war with Israel,” the sources added to Ravid. Hundreds have been injured, with wounds mostly to the hands and stomach, and at least 20 have died in this new wave of explosions.

Lebanon. 3:00 p.m. Thousands of pagers explode: 500 members and allies of Hezbollah are blinded. Among them is the Iranian ambassador. A simultaneous attack has caused thousands of pagers supplied to Hezbollah militants to explode in Beirut, in several other regions of Lebanon and in Damascus. Videos published on social media show men calmly shopping at the market when suddenly something explodes on top of them. The pagers, supplied to pro-Iranian Shiite militants only recently to replace smartphones considered unsafe, all exploded at the same time, causing chaos, terror, at least 19 deaths – including an 8-year-old girl and the son of a member of the pro-Hezbollah party – and 4,000 injuries.

Southern Lebanon and Northern Israel. The Israeli military conducts preemptive airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon after detecting plans for a major attack on its territory. Hezbollah later confirms it has launched “phase one” of a major attack on Israel, launching 320 Katyusha rockets and drones toward Israel and targeting 11 military sites. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) says about 100 fighter jets “hit and destroyed thousands of barrels of Hezbollah rocket launchers” at more than 40 sites.

Kursk Oblast, Russia. During the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, Ukrainian armed forces launch an incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Thousands of soldiers cross the border supported by tanks, drones and armored vehicles. The Kursk incursion surprises both Russia and Ukraine’s allies. It is the most significant cross-border attack since the 2022 invasion and the first carried out mainly by regular Ukrainian forces, who, in 5 days, penetrated more than 30 km reaching and occupying several towns across the border, such as Sudzha.