statistical-mathematical question appears in the pages of the American magazine Parade (a Sunday column appearing in over 700 American publications). It’s based on an old show from the 1960s: “Let’s Make a Deal.” It’s the famous Monty Hall Problem: you’re faced with three doors: behind one is a nice sports car, and behind the other two are a goat each. The contestant chooses a door without opening it. The host, looking backstage to see which door contains a goat, opens another, revealing the goat. At this point, the contestant is offered a change of choice. Is it worth it or not? This problem has sparked countless discussions, even among mathematicians. The solution is that it is, by far, worth it. The host doesn’t open a door at random, but one where he knows (by spying) there is a goat. A better understanding can be found in the extreme case of a million doors, and the host opens all but two: the one chosen by the contestant and another, revealing all goats. Returning to the problem with three doors, the contestant doubles his chances of success if he changes his choice.
