The CIA estimates that the USSR has approximately 400 Bison nuclear bombers and 300 Bear nuclear bombers capable of striking American soil. This estimate is based on the serial numbers of a pair of bombers displayed in the May parade in Moscow’s Red Square. In reality, the Soviets knew the Americans were obsessed with this detail, and they deliberately inflated the serial numbers to mislead them. Much of the Cold War will be marked by this deception. This is partly due to the fact that, on the American side, it is much more serious to underestimate than to overestimate Soviet military power. The result is that actual, effective nuclear power will often be more in the Americans’ favor than the Soviets’. But this fact will be known only to the Soviets, which will perhaps contribute to never triggering a nuclear conflict.
